Thursday, September 20, 2012

The Day After a Stall

Did you notice yesterday was a stall day?

Stall days occur periodically in both up and down markets.

You have a rush for several days, weeks or even months where things  maintain an up or down trend. Then suddenly prices of stocks which had traded freely for a while judder to a stop. A stock moving dollars moves for pennies. It just happens.

You are in a Stall condition.

When this happens look for the markets to reverse for a while. Pundits and media advisors will give you reasons for the Stall. "Bad employment numbers", "Good  employment numbers." "A broker changing from buy to hold" any excuse will do.

What is happening is the market makers are running out of steam. They have pushed the market to where they wanted it to be. Now they momentarily hesitate, prices hover before the reverse.

Don't move to buy in the immediate aftermath of a stall. They can overstoot on the reverse, going too low in the down. Rising too quickly for you to catch the bus on an upturn, then leaving you stranded as they over correct again.

Yesterday saw a stall. I would hold tight for the next month or so. Pundits will blame economic factors and election uncertainty, but we will see a bouncy period in the markets until Thanksgiving, I feel.

After Thanksgiving however look for a surging rally towards Christmas. This is the period of Annual Bonuses so look for a major upturn in the markets as the end of the year approaches.

The old proverb, A Broker loves a Christmas Bonus should be writ large on every investors calendar.

Then plan to rebalance to cash for a New Year buying spree at the Wall Street January Sales.

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